In examining Pierre Poilievre’s political trajectory, comparing two polls conducted approximately three and a half years apart provides insight into his rise and subsequent decline.
In September 2022, shortly after Poilievre assumed leadership of the Conservative Party, a survey by Abacus Data revealed that 35% of Canadians were inclined to support his party, giving the Conservatives a five-point advantage over the Liberals. While Poilievre didn’t captivate the majority, with 34% holding a negative opinion and 29% a positive one, he fared better than his Liberal counterpart.
Fast forward to late January 2026, a recent Abacus poll showed a four-point increase in support for the Conservative Party compared to 2022. Notably, 38% of Canadians now view Poilievre positively. However, the proportion of Canadians with a negative perception of him also rose, with 44% expressing disapproval. Concurrently, public sentiment toward the government has shifted, with 54% approving of its performance and 31% disapproving. Furthermore, 53% hold a favorable opinion of the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, compared to 30% with a negative view.
Despite 39% of Canadians still leaning towards supporting the Conservative Party, if an election took place in late January, 43% would have voted for the Liberals. Poilievre’s selection as Conservative leader in 2022 seemed opportune, positioning him as a suitable candidate. However, recent developments suggest a change in the political landscape.
In a speech at the Conservative convention in Calgary, Poilievre maintained his core message, emphasizing affordability and growth while adopting a more optimistic tone centered around “hope.” While his stance on issues like the cost of living and government intervention remains consistent, questions linger around his approach to Canada’s relationship with the United States.
Moving forward, Poilievre’s challenge lies in retaining Conservative support amid a shifting political climate. The resurgence of the Liberals under Carney poses a significant obstacle, potentially undermining Poilievre’s populist appeal. The next phase will test Poilievre’s leadership and his ability to resonate with Canadian voters amidst evolving dynamics in the political arena.