The 2026 wildfire season has seen a sluggish start, with a lower number of fires compared to the average. However, officials caution that the situation could worsen as summer progresses. Even though the current activity is minimal, there is a possibility of a significant wildfire season nationwide, according to a government spokesperson during a recent briefing.
While it is unlikely that this year will break records like 2023 or 2025, the federal government anticipates above-average conditions in the coming months. The outcome hinges on the upcoming weather patterns, officials explained. If the forecasted above-average temperatures materialize, British Columbia faces the highest wildfire risk, especially in July. The second-highest risk is in southern Ontario and Quebec, with June posing the greatest danger.
As of now, only around 18,000 hectares of forest have been affected by wildfires, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 519,000 hectares for this period. Although the total area burned is less than five percent of the usual average, officials cautioned that the high records of 2023 and 2025 have raised the national averages.
Currently, there are 65 active wildfires in Canada, with six categorized as out of control. The National Preparedness Level is at one, the lowest level, indicating that all regions can manage wildfires without needing federal aid. The recent addition of 10 new firefighting aircraft is expected to enhance the response capabilities across the country in case challenging summer weather conditions occur.
Officials highlighted the improved coordination between federal and provincial wildfire management ministers as a key factor in better preparedness. Minister of Emergency Management Eleanor Olszewski emphasized the importance of proactive planning and close coordination.
Despite reports of a strong El Niño expected to start in June or July, which could bring warmer temperatures to Canada, officials believe it will not have a significant impact on the wildfire season.