A powerful 9.0 magnitude earthquake hits off the coast of Vancouver Island, resulting in significant casualties and destruction in British Columbia. Following the earthquake, survivors flood hospitals in search of missing loved ones, while essential infrastructure like roads and railways suffer damage and flooding from the ensuing tsunami. The aftermath includes shortages of food and medical supplies, exacerbating the chaos.
The B.C. government’s risk analysis paints a grim picture of the disaster, projecting over 3,400 fatalities and more than 10,000 injuries on the day of the initial quake. The report warns of additional casualties caused by secondary hazards such as aftershocks, tsunamis, and fires. It estimates a staggering $128 billion in costs, with 18,000 buildings destroyed and 10,000 more severely damaged. The economic fallout includes a halving of growth, extended GDP and job losses over the next decade, surpassing the cumulative impact of all historical disasters in the province.
The analysis highlights Vancouver Island and a 20-kilometer coastal stretch from the U.S. border to the Sunshine Coast as particularly vulnerable to severe damage. This assessment is part of a broader disaster and climate risk evaluation from October 2025, which also outlines other extreme event scenarios like severe flooding in the Fraser Valley, high-tide flooding on the southwest coast post-winter storms, urban interface fires, and prolonged droughts.
Professor Edwin Nissen of the University of Victoria, an expert in earth and ocean sciences, emphasizes that the report’s projections are based on simulations considering factors like ground-shaking intensity and building resilience. He underscores the importance of periodic updates to emergency preparedness reports due to the evolving science and engineering advancements.
The document references historical seismic events, including the 1700 earthquake, known through First Nations’ oral accounts and scientific studies of the Cascadia fault. The likelihood of a similar catastrophic event occurring in the next three decades is estimated between two to ten percent. Despite the irregularity of such megaquakes, Nissen stresses the imperative of continuous readiness for such disasters.
Regarding the Cascadia subduction zone, Nissen notes the lack of moderate earthquakes recorded, leading scientists to describe the region as unusually quiet in terms of seismic activity. He highlights the unpredictability of earthquake occurrences, emphasizing the necessity for ongoing vigilance and preparedness.