A recent military strike by the United States on Venezuela has impacted the activities of guerrilla groups along the Venezuela-Colombia border, prompting concerns about potential betrayal by Venezuelan authorities and escalating the risk of broader conflicts if U.S. troops intervene, according to local security analysts.
Following the attacks on January 3, there have been reports of increased movements of guerrilla forces on both sides of the border. The National Liberation Army (ELN), the most prominent guerrilla group in the region, has allegedly shut down certain camps in Venezuela amid fears that regime officials might disclose their locations to U.S. forces, experts suggest.
Jorge Mantilla, an expert in armed conflicts and national security from Bogotá, highlighted that the ELN is adapting its security measures and social control systems in Venezuelan communities where their leaders are based to mitigate potential risks.
Furthermore, the ELN has reportedly halted training activities in Venezuela and postponed plans to establish a special forces unit in collaboration with the Venezuelan military. Mantilla emphasized the uncertainties surrounding the situation and mentioned the ELN’s prior anticipation of a U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
The recent developments have raised the possibility of the ELN expanding its influence and evolving into a continental guerrilla force if the U.S. military becomes involved in Venezuela or if the Venezuelan government fractures, creating factions, Mantilla explained.
In response to the situation, Ivan Mordisco, a leader of a dissident group from the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), called for unity among guerrilla groups and the Venezuelan military to counter the U.S. presence. However, Gerson Arias, a researcher, expressed skepticism about Mordisco’s credibility due to his criminal status and lack of trust among potential allies.
The ELN, estimated to have 6,000 to 8,000 members and controlling a significant portion of the Colombia-Venezuela border, remains deeply entrenched in the region, engaging in activities such as illegal mining and drug trafficking for revenue generation. The group’s historical ties with the Venezuelan government, dating back to the era of Hugo Chávez, reflect its alignment with the regime’s political ideology.
The ELN’s strategic positioning in Venezuela has evolved over the years, transitioning from a supportive role to a platform for advancing its political and military objectives. As international efforts to combat the ELN intensify, human rights advocates in the region call for a holistic approach towards peacebuilding and community empowerment to address longstanding conflicts effectively.