Customs brokers, trade lawyers, and corporate leaders are preparing for a pivotal decision from the Supreme Court regarding President Donald Trump’s extensive global tariffs. There is potential for a contentious battle over reclaiming up to $150 billion in refunds from the U.S. government for import duties already paid, should the tariffs be deemed illegal. Recent indications suggest that the court may invalidate the tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, as conservative and liberal justices expressed doubts during November arguments.
Despite the anticipation of the court ruling against Trump’s tariffs, some companies are cautious about the refund process. Jim Estill, CEO of Danby Appliances, a Canadian company selling products from China and other targeted Asian countries, expressed concerns about the difficulty of obtaining refunds. He highlighted the government’s reluctance to return funds and speculated that Trump may resist issuing refunds. Estill also mentioned potential complications with retailers like Home Depot seeking a share of the refunds, creating a complex situation for companies.
President Trump utilized the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, a move unprecedented in presidential history under this law. The tariffs imposed between February and December 2025 accrued an estimated $133.5 billion in collections, with projections nearing $150 billion based on collection rates. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains confident in the court supporting Trump, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested the possibility of compensating lost revenues through new tariffs under different legal authorities.
Companies are eager for potential refunds but remain skeptical about the outcome. The refund process hinges on the Supreme Court’s guidance or the potential remand to a lower court, such as the Court of International Trade, according to customs lawyer Joseph Spraragen. Importers face challenges as the deadline for correcting imports subject to tariffs has passed for goods from China hit in February 2025.
Some companies, including Costco, have taken preemptive legal action against the CBP to safeguard their refund rights. Various companies, such as Bumble Bee Foods and Revlon, have initiated similar lawsuits to secure potential refunds. Industry leaders like Jay Foreman of Basic Fun! expressed doubts about receiving refunds promptly, anticipating delays or obfuscation by the Trump administration.
Trade advisory experts advise companies to maintain meticulous records and act swiftly in the refund process. Pete Mento from Baker Tilly consulting firm emphasized the importance of filing claims promptly and accurately to expedite refunds. The recent technical change by CBP to transition all tariff refunds to electronic distribution signals readiness for a potential refund process if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariffs.
While importers hope for a streamlined refund process, uncertainties remain regarding how CBP will handle a potential ruling against Trump’s tariffs. The agency’s response to a decision against the tariffs is yet to be clarified.