The agreement that restricted the United States and Russia from deploying strategic nuclear weapons has now lapsed, leading to uncertainties about the future plans of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The expiration of the New START treaty signifies the absence of a formal agreement for the first time in over 50 years that capped the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest powers. Experts are divided on whether the treaty’s end will trigger a new nuclear arms race, but there is a consensus that the deal requires significant modernization to address current nuclear dynamics, including China’s expanding weapons program.
Former U.S. diplomat Thomas Countryman expressed concerns about the increased risk of a nuclear attack following the treaty’s expiration, likening the situation to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The now-defunct treaty limited the U.S. and Russia to 1,550 nuclear warheads each and imposed restrictions on their intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and launchers. Despite Russian President Putin hinting at renewing the treaty before his summit with Trump, the proposal did not materialize.
President Trump has criticized the New START agreement, calling it poorly negotiated and advocating for a new, enhanced, and updated treaty that can endure for the long term. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has downplayed the treaty’s expiration and emphasized the necessity of involving China in future arms control efforts, citing China’s projected increase in nuclear warheads to over 1,000 by 2030.
While the U.S. and Russia are exploring options to maintain the treaty’s weapon limits without a formal extension, uncertainties persist about the post-expiration scenario. Experts caution that the world may be entering a more unpredictable phase in terms of nuclear stability. Rose Gottemoeller, a key negotiator of the New START treaty, acknowledges the evolving landscape of nuclear agreements and supports the goal of negotiating improved arrangements. The prospect of addressing China’s nuclear buildup remains a significant challenge for the U.S. in the coming years.