In the aftermath of the unexpected demise of Iran’s supreme leader following actions by the U.S. and Israel over the weekend, there has been widespread speculation and uncertainty regarding the leadership succession and the current governing body in Iran.
This marks only the second occasion since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that the selection of a new supreme leader is underway. The late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who governed Iran for 37 years, passed away without naming a designated successor.
Among the potential candidates being discussed, one prominent name is that of Mojtaba, one of Khamenei’s sons. Reports circulating in the media suggested on Tuesday that he might be the chosen successor, although official confirmation is still pending. However, considering the U.S.’s stance on regime change, appointing Khamenei’s son, especially after his father’s recent demise, could pose challenges with the Trump administration.
Currently, the interim leadership responsibilities in Iran have been assumed by President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje’i, and senior Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that a new supreme leader would be designated within the week.
The selection of the new supreme leader is technically the prerogative of the Assembly of Experts, comprising 88 Shia clerics, subject to approval by Iran’s constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council. However, the ongoing hostilities and attacks have raised uncertainties about the functioning of these institutions. Notably, on Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces reported bombing the location where the Assembly was convening, leading to speculations about the fate of the clerics present.
Various potential successors have been identified, with Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a frontrunner due to his connections with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), although he has not held any official position. The uncertainty surrounding Mojtaba’s status was highlighted by reports of his wife’s demise without any information on his whereabouts.
Other potential candidates include Ali Reza Arafi, Hassan Khomeini, and Reza Pahlavi, each presenting unique considerations for the leadership role. Reza Pahlavi, in particular, has garnered attention as a potential successor, although concerns have been raised about his acceptance within Iran.
President Trump has expressed reservations about certain candidates and the overall succession process in Iran, emphasizing the need for a clear and accepted leadership transition. The evolving situation in Iran has sparked discussions about potential outcomes, ranging from democratic reforms to military takeovers or foreign interventions, leaving the country at a critical crossroads.