Environment and Climate Change Canada predicts that 2026 is likely to rank among the top four warmest years ever recorded. Based on a recent analysis of global temperatures published on ClimateData.ca, scientists are highly confident that 2026 will be one of the hottest years on record. The increase in carbon emissions, primarily from the combustion of coal, oil, and gas, is the main driver of the Earth’s rising temperatures. However, the surge in temperature is not solely due to human activities.
The recent unprecedented global temperatures can be partially attributed to the significant El Niño event in 2023-2024, compounded by ongoing human-induced climate change. Projections indicate that this year’s global average temperature is expected to range between 1.35°C to 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. There is a 12% chance of surpassing the critical threshold of 1.5°C, which countries like Canada, committed to the Paris Agreement, aim to avoid.
The primary objective of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while striving to cap the temperature rise at 1.5°C. The ultimate goal is to achieve net-zero global emissions by 2050. Maintaining global warming below 1.5°C significantly reduces the risks associated with heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall, and flooding, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The Canadian analysis warns that exceeding 1.5°C in a single year does not equate to failing the Paris Agreement’s goal, which focuses on the long-term average temperature over several decades. Nevertheless, the forecast indicates a concerning trend in the wrong direction, with this year likely marking the 13th consecutive year of global temperatures surpassing 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
Global temperature changes are typically measured against the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900), which provides the earliest reliable observations of temperature across land and sea. Apart from Environment and Climate Change Canada’s forecast, the non-profit organization Berkeley Earth also anticipates 2026 to be comparable to 2025, ranking as the fourth-warmest year since 1850. Last year, 2025, followed as the third-warmest year, trailing only behind 2024 and 2023.