The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has predicted a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for this year. The forecast anticipates between eight and 14 named storms, with three to six of them possibly becoming hurricanes, and one to three could escalate into major hurricanes ranging from Category 3 to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This projection contrasts with the 30-year average from 1991-2020, which experienced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes during the season running from June 1 to Nov. 30.
During a recent media event detailing the forecast, NOAA director Ken Graham emphasized the importance of preparedness, highlighting that hurricanes remain dangerous regardless of the predicted numbers. The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) also released a forecast aligned with NOAA’s projections. Bob Robichaud from Environment and Climate Change Canada mentioned that an average of 35 to 40 percent of storms pass through the CHC’s response zone, potentially impacting regions from Atlantic Canada to northern Ontario.
The below-average forecast is attributed to the anticipated El Niño event, which some models predict to be notably strong. El Niño conditions typically lead to increased wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, which can hinder storm formation. However, despite the lower hurricane forecast, global ocean temperatures, especially in the mid-Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form, are notably warm due to climate change, providing favorable conditions for hurricane development.
NOAA is also forecasting an above-average hurricane season in the Pacific region, with 15 to 22 storms, including nine to 14 named storms and five to nine major hurricanes. Last year, the Atlantic region saw 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, although no hurricane made landfall in the U.S. However, these storms still caused fatalities and significant damages.
Experts stress the importance of preparedness regardless of forecasts or storm intensity. As climate change continues to warm ocean waters, the potential for more severe hurricanes remains a significant concern. Meteorologists advise vigilance and readiness in the face of unpredictable weather events.