Electricity demand in Canada is projected to experience significant growth by the year 2050, as indicated by new modeling data from the country’s national energy regulator unveiled on Tuesday. The forecasts also anticipate a robust increase in natural gas production and the expansion of renewable energy sources throughout the nation.
The latest projections from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) emphasize an anticipated surge in power consumption from one coast to another, with a 44% rise expected from 2023 to 2050. This growth is primarily attributed to escalating residential and industrial demand, alongside the technology sector’s requirements, such as AI data centers.
Concurrently, the capacity of Canada’s electricity system is set to double from 160 gigawatts in 2023 to 310 gigawatts by 2050. The surge in power generation will predominantly be driven by wind energy, with projections indicating an escalation from 40 terawatt-hours in 2023 to 277 terawatt-hours by 2050, according to the CER.
Darren Christie, the CER’s chief economist, highlighted, “While wind energy stands as the largest incremental source of generation, we also anticipate an uptick in solar power. These variable sources will be complemented by increased generation from more stable and dispatchable sources like hydroelectricity, nuclear, and natural gas.”
Christie further noted the increasing significance of power transmission lines between provinces in balancing the fluctuations in electricity supply and demand. The total interprovincial transmission capacity is expected to grow by approximately 70% by 2050.
In Ontario, the nuclear power sector is expanding with the construction of the initial small modular nuclear power plant out of four planned facilities, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion. Similar nuclear projects are being pursued by other provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The modeling also suggests a relatively stable trajectory for oil and natural gas consumption in the forthcoming decades, with fossil fuel utilization projected to only increase by one percent by 2050 compared to 2023.
Regarding natural gas production, estimates point to a rise from around 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to a range between 21 billion and 32 billion by 2050, contingent on the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Currently, only one operational LNG facility exists on the West Coast, while several others are in various stages of development or construction.
The CER’s oil production projections are less definitive due to factors like fluctuating global commodity prices. The scenarios presented by the CER outline a potential 18% increase or a 12% decrease in Canada’s oil production by 2050.
The regulator has outlined four different scenarios, including a traditional baseline, forecasting a peak in oil production at 6.1 million barrels per day by 2042 before stabilizing at 5.9 million barrels per day by 2050.
All projected scenarios anticipate a decline in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years, largely attributed to a cleaner energy grid and enhanced environmental practices across various sectors. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would necessitate a comprehensive shift towards low-carbon technologies, according to the latest CER energy outlook.
The Canada Energy Regulator first published an energy outlook in 1967, with the most recent report being the first update since 2023.