2026 is anticipated to be another eventful year in Canadian politics following a tumultuous period that saw significant shifts, including Conservative MPs defecting to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government. The upcoming year is expected to be marked by crucial events, with a focus on U.S. trade negotiations and pivotal decisions by federal opposition parties as the Liberal government, just one seat away from a majority, charts its course.
One significant development to monitor is the commencement of a mandatory review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, with formal discussions set to start in January. While the agreement has provided essential safeguards for Canada amid global trade challenges, the Canadian economy continues to face hardships due to sectoral tariffs on key industries like steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber.
The review process has been underscored by conditions set by the U.S., including demands for enhanced market access for American dairy products and addressing provincial restrictions on U.S. alcohol. Additionally, scrutiny is directed towards Canada’s Online Streaming Act, which brought online platforms under Canadian broadcasting regulations.
On the political front, the Conservative Party will convene in Calgary at the end of January for a crucial meeting to determine the future of party leader Pierre Poilievre. Despite recent setbacks, Poilievre remains confident about retaining his leadership position, citing the party’s electoral gains as a positive trajectory.
The Liberal government, currently one seat short of a majority, is on the brink of securing a significant advantage following the recent floor crossings. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson hinted at potential additional defections from opposition ranks, hinting at a growing interest in joining the government.
In another key development, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is gearing up for a leadership race in March after a disappointing election showing. The NDP, reduced to just seven seats, aims to revitalize its presence with five candidates vying for the leadership position.
Moreover, border security legislation introduced by the Liberals faces hurdles and revisions as it progresses through the legislative process. Concerns about overreach and privacy implications have prompted adjustments to the bill, now split into separate components to expedite certain provisions.
Legislative activity also includes bills addressing tax cuts, carbon tax adjustments, and reforms to the criminal justice system, highlighting a busy agenda for the Canadian political landscape in the upcoming year.